Who holds power in Fresno politics?
The Fresnoland team analyzed endorsements and campaign finance contributions to see which groups came out on top.
Who holds power in Fresno politics? That’s the question we’re always trying to answer before, during and after every local election at Fresnoland.
Every cycle comes with new donors as well as old ones. New alliances as well as old alliances emerge. Upsets happen. So with just a few thousand ballots left to count, and the vast majority of races decided, here’s our assessment on the true winners and losers in this cycle.
(Note: this analysis focuses primarily on local races in Fresno County, and less on Congress and the Assembly.)
Winner: Service Employees International Union Local 2015
SEIU Local 2015, the union representing thousands of caregivers employed through the county’s In-Home Supportive Services (or IHSS) program, got almost everything it wanted on its election wishlist this year.
SEIU backed Esmeralda Soria, who clinched reelection to Assembly District 27 over challenger Joanna Garcia Rose.
Though it didn’t explicitly endorse Fresno Unified school board trustee Elizabeth Jonasson Rosas, they gave $1,500 to her campaign. She handily won reelection in the board’s Roosevelt area, declaring victory on election night (but hasn’t said yet whether she’ll run for her husband Luis Chavez’s seat to replace him on Fresno City Council).
One of the union’s only significant losses in the San Joaquin Valley was in the race for the 22nd Congressional District, where SEIU-backed Rudy Salas lost his rematch against incumbent David Valadao.
But its biggest win came on the Fresno County Board of Supervisors, where they helped unseat two seasoned incumbents.
The union endorsed the two challengers vying for seats of the Fresno County Board of Supervisors, Chavez and Garry Bredefeld. Both of them were sailing toward victory over incumbents Sal Quintero and Steve Brandau as of the latest vote tallies Nov. 18.
SEIU bet big on Chavez and Bredefeld after negotiations stalled on the IHSS workers’ contract.
“In Fresno County, we wanted to send a message to the current Board of Supervisors,” said Dereck Smith, an executive vice president in the union, “and we wanted to hold them accountable.”
But whether these changes to the five-member board will finally move the needle for IHSS workers in Fresno County remains to be seen.
The union sees Chavez, whose mother was an in-home caregiver, as a “champion for our members,” union spokesperson Kinye Watson told Fresnoland over email Oct. 10.
“Luis will be the voice we need to advocate on behalf of home care workers,” Watson added, “and has a respectful relationship with several of the sitting supervisors, along with his work with Gary Bredefeld who are both currently working together on the Fresno City Council.”
As for Bredefeld, Watson acknowledged they may not see eye-to-eye on all his policy positions. But the supervisor-elect guaranteed “his office doors will always be open” to their members.
“(Bredefeld) has met with our members several times and has repeatedly informed SEIU 2015 that once he becomes a Supervisor, he will ensure that workers will be supported and their contracts negotiated in a timely manner,” Watson added, noting that Fresno County IHSS workers’ last contract took a decade to negotiate.
Toss-up: The Fresno Teachers Association
Like SEIU, the Fresno Unified teachers union is another labor organization that placed big bets on two challengers on Fresno’s ballot this November. In this case, FTA was looking to shake up the dynamics on the district’s seven-member school board.
But, unlike SEIU, FTA saw mixed results.
The union poured roughly $200,000 into campaigns in the Fresno High and Hoover High areas, seeking to unseat incumbents Andy Levine and Claudia Cázares. The union called them “nice people” who weren’t proactive enough as trustees.
Despite spending top dollar on challenger James Martinez in the Fresno High area and Dan Bordona in the Hoover race, only the Hoover seat looked likely to flip as of election results Nov. 18.
Even then, Bordona’s margin over Cázares was razor-thin at roughly 150 votes.
In the Fresno High area, on the other hand, just over 2,000 votes separated Levine and his two challengers, FTA-backed Martinez and independent candidate Emma Villa, as of vote tallies Nov. 18.
Levine carried roughly 44% of the vote to Martinez’s 29% and Villa’s 27%.
FTA President Manuel Bonilla told Fresnoland part of what he believes made the difference in the Fresno High contest was the presence of a second challenger, Villa, who he called a “spoiler candidate.”
“The fact remains that a majority of people, 56%, voted against Andy,” he said.
As for their relationship going forward, Bonilla said they’re “willing and ready to work with anybody that wants to improve public education in Fresno.”
“We’re willing to not just meet but hold them accountable to see if those actions are going to actually take place,” he said, “otherwise, it’s just talk.”
Levine has stated that despite losing FTA’s support in this round, he’s committed to working with them and hearing their concerns going forward.
One other Fresno Unified-related item on the ballot this fall was Measure H. A large chunk of it was earmarked to be hashed out collaboratively between FTA and district leadership.
The $500 million bond measure was comfortably passing as of vote tallies Nov. 18 with over 64% of voters supporting – well above the 55% approval required for school bonds to pass. It succeeded despite opposition from former Fresno Unified trustee Brooke Ashjian, whose Guardians of Growth PAC spent more than $23,000 on radio ads and text messages assailing the bond. Fresno Unified school board president Susan Wittrup, who represents the Bullard High area, was the only sitting board member to oppose the bond.
But compared with its spending on the Fresno High and Hoover area trustee races, FTA spent a fraction of that money on supporting the bond. As of campaign finance filings Monday, FTA’s PAC had spent under $5,000 on Measure H.
Bonilla defended the strategy while stating there were more invoices they needed to pay regarding Measure H that weren’t yet reflected in campaign finance documents.
“There are only seven people that make up that school board, and those decisions that they make and the votes that they take really dictate everything that happens in our system (and) in our classrooms,” he said. “Those people on that board matter.”
As for some of the biggest wins for the union in the bond’s spending plan, Bonilla pointed to commitments to reduce class sizes overall by building out classroom spaces – one of the biggest sticking points in FTA’s contract negotiations last year.
Toss-up: Developers
It’s hard to have a conversation about Fresno politics without mentioning the power and influence of the local development community. For as long as Fresnoland has been analyzing campaign finance, developers typically represent a majority of all local donations.
But unlike labor unions, they don’t make endorsements, and they don’t always donate in blocs — you’ll often see developers donate to both candidates, unless one candidate is clearly viewed as hostile to their cause, like with Andrew Janz’ 2020 Fresno mayoral campaign, where he said he wouldn’t accept their contributions, citing Fresno’s history of corruption around developer money.
This cycle was truly a mixed bag for developers. A large number of them lined up with Fresno City Council, District 6 candidate Roger Bonakdar, the favorite — who appears to be heading for a loss.
There were some who backed winners: Madera-based Target Constructors, who kicked in $10,000 for both the Chavez and Bredefeld campaigns; and, Harris Real Estate Group, LP – connected to attorney William Harris, who also gave $7,500 a piece to the winning campaigns for supervisor.
Bob Shiralian and Sheralian Enterprises went big for Bredefeld, with $15,000 in – but lost big on Bonakdar’s campaign, after putting in over $11,000.
Developers poured in plenty of money in successful campaigns to renew Madera County’s transportation sales tax and raise taxes on Clovis residents, ostensibly to hire more cops.
In the race for Fresno County Supervisor, District 2, we saw some seasoned developers support both candidates – like Cook Land Company, which holds long-term leases for county buildings, or Wilson Homes, under their Valley Affordable Housing Advocates PAC. (Neither contributed to Chavez or Quintero’s campaigns for District 3 in 2024.)
And some developers didn’t fare very well: namely, Richard Spencer, who gave $35,000 to Brandau’s failed campaign and another $5,500 to Bonakdar.
What about one of Fresno’s most influential and prolific development families, the Assemis? After making significant contributions to Bonakdar, Brandau, and Bredefeld in 2023 and prior, they stopped giving money to candidates in 2024. (Darius Assemi’s PAC, Moving the Central Valley Forward, hasn’t filed their reports yet – but from campaign finance disclosures, we haven’t seen any contributions to candidates this year on their behalf. We reached out to Darius Assemi for comment.)
Winner: Contractors that build schools
It was a good election cycle for companies who build schools. With winning local school bonds in all of the Fresno metro school districts – Fresno, Clovis, Central, Sanger, Sierra, Kingsburg, Parlier, Firebaugh and Laton Unified – paired with a successful state education bond, we’re certain to see a school construction boom.
And a lot of those companies were some of the biggest donors in this election cycle: PBK, a Fresno-based architectural firm, put in $60,000 to support the Fresno and Clovis Unified bonds. Westech Systems, a Clovis-based electrical company, put in over $40,000. Bush Construction, with offices in Hanford and Clovis, put in over $30,000. And Fresno-based Darden Architects put in over $27,500.
Will these donors be awarded contracts in these districts? After Fresno Unified leaders got caught in the crosshairs after awarding no-bid “lease-leaseback” contracts to mega-bond-donor and contractor Richard Spencer, you would think that boards and administrators would be working hard to ensure contracts don’t favor donors. We’ll be watching!
Winner: Alex Tavlian, political operative, lobbyist, communications and legislative consultant, and website publisher
Fresno’s most gainfully employed political operative-slash-lobbyist-slash-communications consultant- slash-website publisher, Alex Tavlian, racked up several major wins in this election cycle – in addition to raking in hundreds of thousands of dollars for his political consulting firm, Park West Associates.
He was the primary political consultant for three winning campaigns: Bredefeld’s successful challenge to oust incumbent Brandau; Clovis Unified’s bond; and, Madera County’s successful renewal of Measure T, the transportation sales tax.
His consulting services were also used for a pro-Luis Chavez for Supervisor PAC, called Neighborhoods for Government Integrity and Accountability Action, which sent out mailers maligning former Chavez boss and longtime Democrat Sal Quintero with his “MAGA colleagues.”
But could Tavlian’s strategy for passing Measure T become a blueprint for local governments struggling to reach the difficult supermajority threshold for taxes?
In 2022, Measure T got 52.4% of the vote – far short of the 66.67% supermajority needed to pass. In 2024, the ballot measure is on track to get about the same amount of support, but this time, it will pass. How? Because ballot measures that are placed in front of voters through a signature-gathering process just need a simple majority to pass.
Tavlian worked with FrontPoint Partners, LLC — a Newport Beach-based shell company, (whom he lobbied the City of Fresno on behalf of in 2023) to fund and run the petition drive and author the legislation.
Fresno County leaders have been struggling to find the right coalition to get a successful transportation tax renewal plan – known in Fresno as Measure C. Will this be the path forward for them, as well?
Not everything Tavlian touched turned to gold on Election Night, though. He also ran Bonakdar’s likely unsuccessful campaign for Fresno City Council, District 6 – a candidate that seemed to be a shoe-in, given his enormous fundraising and endorsement advantage. He was also a political advisor to FTA, which – after spending nearly $200,000 – may only oust one of the Fresno Unified trustees they were seeking to unseat.
But with so many other contracts he holds – six figure legislative consulting agreements for Fresno City Councilmembers Mike Karbassi and Chavez, whilst lobbying the city on behalf of an industrial developer – those losses seem like a drop in the bucket.
Fresnoland reached out to Tavlian for comment.
Winner: High-energy campaigns
Wearing out pairs of shoes from knocking on so many Fresno doors was this year’s favorite – and most effective – political humble-brag.
Though there’s no tried-and-true formula to victory, extensive canvassing and overall high-energy campaigns on the part of challengers and political newcomers this election appear to have contributed to their success.
Take termed-out city councilmember Bredefeld, for example, who ousted fellow conservative Brandau in the race for the D2 seat on Fresno County Board of Supervisors.
Bredefeld said he ruined five pairs of shoes while knocking on 20,000 doors across the district.
In the race to replace Bredefeld on Fresno City Council, political newcomer Nick Richardson has held on to a small but growing lead over his opponent Roger Bonakdar since late election night.
That’s despite his opponent’s establishment funding and high-profile endorsements from both labor unions and business organizations.
When the tally first turned in his favor around midnight after polls closed on Election Day, Richardson thanked his team of volunteers “who were there to support and work hard and wake up early and ruin their shoes” for the campaign.
While Supervisor-elect Chavez never detailed how his shoes fared after going door-to-door in his campaign for the third supervisorial district, he did say that he personally knocked on 19,765 doors “through all four seasons” on Fresnoland’s podcast.
Chavez declared victory over incumbent Quintero in an interview with Fresnoland the day after the election.
Better luck next time: The Fresno County Republican Party
Yes, it’s looking like Fresno County voted for President-elect Donald Trump, breaking a nearly two-decade tradition of voting for the Democratic candidate for president.
And yes, it’s looking like western Fresno County held strong for Rep. John Duarte, fighting off Democrat Adam Gray for the closely contested seat. And Republican Michael Maher gave Rep. Jim Costa a run for his money for the closest race the longstanding Congressman has seen in almost a decade.
But are those wins because Democrats didn’t show up, or because Latino and Asian voters have shifted to the right?
Turnout in this election was around 62% – far less than when Biden won Fresno County with nearly 75% of voters showing up. It’s the lowest turnout in a general presidential election in Fresno County since 1972, when just 58% of registered voters showed up.
We won’t have a data-driven answer to the shift in Latino voters until the election is certified, but yeah – it’s not hard to find Latino Republicans all over Fresno.
Republicans have made modest registration gains countywide – especially in the past two years, gaining almost 10,000 – but their share of the electorate continues its decade-long decline as voters flock to ‘no party preference’ and third parties.
At the local level, the GOP still has some work to do. After pulling their endorsement of Richardson to represent northeast neighborhoods on the Fresno City Council, they switched it to Bonakdar, who only registered as a Republican after the March primary. Richardson’s campaign said he lost the endorsement because of his responses to a questionnaire from LGBTQ Fresno, which the GOP has yet to confirm or deny. Meanwhile Bonakdar’s conservative endorsements failed to win him over with voters, as he stands to lose that race.
While a nonpartisan office, Fresno County’s District 6 is the lone seat on the Fresno City Council represented by a Republican.
Better luck next time: The Fresno County Democratic Party
Democrats didn’t show up, full stop. It was the lowest turnout the county has seen since 1972.
And there were local consequences: Congressman Jim Costa nearly lost his seat, and Adam Gray couldn’t win over western Fresno County to defeat Congressman John Duarte.
The county party had very mixed results with their endorsements. Their choice of Luis Chavez over longtime Democrat Sal Quintero was successful. But their endorsements for Fresno Unified, James Martinez and Claudia Cázares, were not.
Despite 18,000 new voters registering countywide over the past four years, the Democrats have actually lost voters during that period, netting almost 3,000 lost in the last two years alone.
The local party has difficult work ahead. In a county that chose Bernie Sanders in the 2020 Democratic primary, most local Democratic politicians are more likely to align with center-left positions and coalitions than with “rage against the machine,” anti-corporate politics.
Will they find candidates or issues to put on the 2026 ballot that will excite voters enough to show up?
Comments are closed.