What's at stake?
A student enrollment projection report for Fresno Unified’s upcoming school year shows that high schools are expected to lead the district in enrollment losses, while elementary schools make up most of the sites that will see a jump in student numbers.
New Fresno Unified enrollment projections suggest California’s third-largest school district expects students to leave at some of the highest rates ever over the next two years as enrollment declines gain momentum.
Over the last decade, Fresno Unified has lost around 4,000 students and now expects to lose roughly the same number of students in just the next couple of years, with freshman and senior classes alone losing around 600 students.
Fresno Unified has previously reported that it expects to lose around 4,000 students by the 2028-29 school year. For the coming 2026-27 school year, it is projecting a net decrease of 1,199 students, an increase from the previous year’s actual loss of 1,044 students.
The analysis reviewed by Fresnoland was put together by SchoolWorks, a consultant group working for FUSD.
Paul Idsvoog, the district’s chief of operations, said the projections were done in November of 2025 and are done every year in the fall for the upcoming school year.
“We will have a better idea of actual enrollment for this year as we move from pre-reg to when school actually starts as kids continue to register into the school year,” Idsvoog said in an email.
Across all grades, FUSD is adding only 370 students to its population this coming school year, compared to the 1,569 it is expecting to lose.
At the school level, Roosevelt High School could be hit hardest in the coming school year, losing about 132 students, the largest drop in for any school in Fresno Unified. It’s followed by Mclane High School, which is projected to lose 90 students, and Fresno High School, expected to lose 67.
On the other hand, schools in the district that are expecting the largest increases in enrollment this year are all elementary schools.
Experts have previously told Fresnoland that statewide trends of declining enrollment affecting districts like Fresno Unified are expected to continue. Both experts and the district cite declining birth rates, migration in and out of the state and rising costs of living as some of the factors contributing to the continued decline in enrollment.
Figarden Elementary is anticipated to add 32 students, trailed by Wawona K-8 with a projection of 30 new students. The next three schools, Del Mar, Roeding and Vinland Elementary, are expected to gain 17 students apiece.
The report shows a district with major enrollment issues beginning to snowball as the student exodus picks up momentum. Declining enrollment trends have plagued Fresno Unified for at least the last decade, with officials outlining program and school consolidations as possible solutions to address the continuing enrollment loss.
For the district, this has meant making cuts to hundreds of jobs to address a budget deficit now projected to sit at around $23 million.
At the same time, FUSD’s neighboring school district to the east, Clovis Unified, has seen steady growth over the last ten years, reaching a record 43,254 students in 2025-26.
