Esmeralda Soria, a Democrat who represents Assembly District 27, had a healthy lead Tuesday evening over her Republican opponent Joanna Garcia Rose.
Still, both candidates acknowledged the race was too close to definitively call late Tuesday.
Soria had 53.9% of the vote over Rose’s 46.1% just after 10 p.m. Tuesday, with roughly 88% of precincts partially reporting, according to the Secretary of State.
Assembly District 27 includes most of Merced County and all of its cities except Gustine, plus parts of Madera and Fresno counties.
“I feel very optimistic about the results thus far, but what’s important to me is that every single vote is counted,” said Soria. “My team worked really hard. Not just in the last few months when we were out canvassing and engaging voters, but throughout the two years that I’ve been in office.”
After a tight race with fluctuating leads, Rose remained cautiously optimistic about the outcome.
“I think it’s just too early to tell. She was up 10%, now it’s like 7% — there should still be over 100,000 votes to tally,” she said. “At this time, I’d just say God is good all the time. I’m very blessed, and I have faith in whatever His plan is for me.”
Soria drew a large crowd during a campaign gathering at the Tioga-Sequoia Taproom in Merced, where around 150 supporters gathered. Moving through the crowd, she took time to speak with attendees, who enjoyed beer and tacos with complimentary tickets provided at the event.
The atmosphere was celebratory even before the final round of votes had been tallied, as Soria held a solid lead.
“Based on the polls and that she’s leading, historically, the candidate that’s leading normally wins the race, so I’m optimistic that she will be the winner of our district,” said Merced County Hispanic Chamber of Commerce Executive Director Annisa Fragoso who was in attendance. “She’s more than qualified. She knows how to advocate for Merced County and the Central Valley.”
Cultiva Central Valley Director Claudia Corchado echoed Fragoso’s sentiment.
“We are optimistic because she is ahead, and then by usually, by this time, if they are ahead, it’s usually a pretty good outcome,” she said “One of the things about Assemblywoman Soria is that she’s very responsive to the community needs. She listens to the community and is responsive to the community’s needs.”
Rose joined 13th Congressional District Rep. John Duarte for a campaign gathering Tuesday evening at the Ten Pin Fun Center in Turlock.
The race between Soria and Rose was highly anticipated following the March primary, which was extremely close. Rose achieved 50.9% of the vote over Soria’s 49.1% during the primary.
But Rose’s performance in March was mostly symbolic, as the two candidates were headed to a November runoff regardless of vote count. The March primary was also marked by extremely low voter turnout.
Soria first won the Assembly seat in 2022 by narrowly defeating Republican Mark Pazin, a former Merced County Sheriff, with a margin of 2.6% points.
Before joining the Assembly, Soria served on the Fresno City Council, where she was known for her advocacy on affordable housing, immigrant rights and community safety initiatives.
An Atwater auditor, Rose ran a campaign centered on government reform, fiscal responsibility, and opposition to policies she described as detrimental to the Valley’s economic and social landscape.
With a background in agricultural business and farming, she sought to position herself as a voice for rural and agricultural interests, appealing to Republican and moderate voters.
Rose highlighted concerns over state policies impacting affordability and public safety, advocating for a shift away from what she described as the liberal policies coming out of Sacramento.
