What’s at stake?
Fresno County tends to have a higher unemployment rate particularly in the winter months due to the dominant industry of agriculture. But the latest data might not begin to reflect layoffs from one of the biggest farming company collapses in recent California history.
Fresno County’s unemployment rate climbed in January to 8.8%, surpassing both the state and national averages – and that’s likely before Prima Wawona layoffs became official.
In a region of California where agriculture dominates, the industry has an outsize impact on overall job trends. Experts say that typically translates to annual dips in employment in the winter.
“The norm is basically from October to February (and) March, you’ll see a rise in the unemployment rate,” said Steven Gutierrez, a labor market researcher with the Employment Development Department, “because certain industries no longer have employment … farm would be the big one because that’s the big, driving force here in the Valley.
“Then when we get into the spring and summer months,” he added, “we see the unemployment go down because those industries are at full force.”
Though these month-to-month changes were mostly par for the course in Fresno, the county’s estimated unemployment rate was higher than a year prior. In January 2023, the rate was almost a full percentage point lower at 7.7%.
This trend, on the other hand, mirrored what was happening at the state level. In California, the unemployment rate also crept up more than half a percentage point from 4.5% in January 2023 to 5.2% in January 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In fact, California reported one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation based on preliminary data from BLS in January, second only to Nevada.
Other workforce trends in Fresno County
In Fresno, jobs declined not only in agriculture but also construction, retail, and most sectors between December and January, preliminary data from California’s Employment Development Department show.
The seasons can also help explain some of the other downticks in jobs, including in construction.
“The more rain we get,” Gutierrez said, “it doesn’t allow them to be able to go out there … especially if it has to do with residential buildings.”
There were some outliers in Fresno County’s January jobs report, however, including the healthcare industry – a sector that has proven “resilient” in recent years, Gutierrez said.
The industry, which EDD lumps together with private education, added 600 jobs between December and January.
Going further back to last January, the sector added 5,000 jobs – which Gutierrez said may have something to do with local demographic trends.
“Especially with the aging population,” he said, “a lot of services and products are needed for those individuals that are bottom line living a lot longer than they were before.”
When will Fresno County’s data show the effects of Prima Wawona layoffs?
In January, the Central Valley braced for job loss on a catastrophic scale after the collapse of Prima Wawona, the now-bankrupt stone fruit farming and packing giant.
More than 5,400 workers received notice that their jobs would be terminated by March 12 in compliance with the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification, or WARN, Act.
Labor experts previously told Fresnoland there are likely up to an additional 5,000 farmworkers who worked with Prima Wawona through farm labor contractors who are also losing out on work and pay but who wouldn’t have received the WARN Act notices.
It’s unclear whether the Prima Wawona layoffs would be included in EDD’s January data, which recorded a drop in farm jobs by 1,600.
“This seems inconsistent with the report that 3,743 notices were issued to seasonal Prima Wawona workers (from a total of 5,400),” said Fresno State economics professor Antonio Avalos in an email to Fresnoland.
He noted that not all laid-off Prima Wawona workers necessarily live in Fresno County and therefore may not be included in a Fresno County report.
Kevin Capehart, a Fresno State economics professor, said it’s possible those layoffs won’t be counted in EDD’s data until April.
“In principle, the unemployment rate is supposed to reflect a point in time, although it generally reflects the week or pay period that includes the 12th day of the month,” he said in an email to Fresnoland, “so if they if they officially laid everybody off on March 12th, then that (and the knock-on effects from other businesses laying off people) should show up by the March 2024 data, which we won’t see until the month after that.”
Other workers may fall through the cracks entirely, especially the undetermined number of farmworkers formerly with Prima Wawona who are undocumented, said Ana Padilla, executive director of the UC Merced Community and Labor Center.
Part of that has to do with the EDD and Bureau of Labor Statistics’ methodology in collecting unemployment data.
The EDD’s estimates on unemployment and jobs in specific industries is based on a survey the Bureau of Labor Statistics sends out to employers, according to Gutierrez. Later in the month, the agency will provide revised data based on unemployment insurance claims – which workers without documentation are ineligible for.
Experts have estimated that over half Prima Wawona’s workforce was undocumented.
“It’s impossible for those job losses to be reflected,” Padilla said, “at any time, in any year.”
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article misnamed the state’s Employment Development Department.
