What's at stake?
Fresno County would be split 6 ways in Congress, up from its current 4, if Prop. 50 passes.
There are other big changes proposed across the Valley too.
When Fresno County voters receive their ballots this week, they’ll face a single question with sweeping consequences: Should California abandon its independent redistricting system for the rest of the decade to counter Republican gerrymandering in other states?
Prop. 50, the Election Rigging Response Act, would temporarily replace California’s citizen-drawn congressional districts with Democrat-designed boundaries through 2030, potentially flipping five of the nine Republican-controlled seats in California blue. After 2030, the independent commission would resume control.
Proposition 50 emerges from an unprecedented nationwide redistricting war that erupted this June, when President Trump pressured Texas Republicans to redraw their congressional maps mid-decade, seeking to add five GOP seats before the 2026 midterms. With Republicans clinging to a mere six-seat House majority, Governor Gavin Newsom fired back with California’s own emergency measure.
But for Fresno County residents, these new maps would fracture long-established communities and fundamentally alter their representation in Congress.
What does Prop. 50 mean for the Central Valley?
Fresno County would be carved up into six congressional districts instead of the current four, with some of the Central Valley’s new boundaries – sprawling all the way to the Bay area – raising some eyebrows.
The proposed 18th District, drawing a big portion of voters in San Jose, would jump the coastal mountain ranges, putting Silicon Valley tech workers under the same umbrella as Huron’s community of farmworkers.
“The Valley has a right to have their own congressman, not share it with the Bay Area,” said Fresno County Supervisor Buddy Mendes about the proposed changes. “The only ones that should share with the Bay Area are places like Tracy, Manteca, places that are hooked right off Alameda County. Not in Fresno. That’s just total bullshit.”
The Valley’s 13th District, where freshman Democratic Rep. Adam Gray survived one of 2024’s toughest campaigns, would see its Democratic registration edge increase by 3% because of a massive geographical shift.
Gray’s drastically new boundaries would include Stockton in the north, starting a southern march towards Modesto, looping in Merced and even Mendota – a configuration that has left county politicos puzzled about how a Delta inlet city could share common interests with a deep Westside farm town.
In defense of the major changes to the 13th district, Pablo Rodriguez, the executive director for Communities for a New California Action Fund, wrote that the new maps would be more fair to North Valley towns.
“Modesto would finally be linked with Merced instead of split, giving working families and students a stronger voice,” he wrote in an analysis.
Rep. David Valadao’s 22nd District would also see major changes. The Hanford Republican’s district would gain a Democratic registration advantage. His new boundaries would snake from parts of Bakersfield northward through Porterville, Lindsay, Tulare, Hanford, Huron and Kerman and into northwest Fresno – while leaving out Republican-leaning Coalinga and Lemoore.
Valadeo’s new maps may not be a disaster for Republicans, according to Rodriguez at Communities for a New California Action Fund. With Dem turnout collapsing in his district in the last presidential election, even as Republican turnout improved, Valadeo is still likely competitive in the new maps if current trends hold.
In the northern Valley, Rep. Josh Harder’s 9th District would transform from competitive to safely Democratic by building an awkward, arcing district stretching from the Delta cities of Antioch and Pittsburg, snaking around Stockton to capture Tracy, Manteca, and Ripon.
Rep. Vince Fong’s district, covering Fresno and Clovis, would see minimal changes, as would Rep. Jim Costa’s existing district.
Use this tool here to see how the boundaries of the Congressional district you currently live in would change if Prop. 50 is passed.
How did California get here?
California pioneered independent redistricting during the Great Recession, when voters transferred map-drawing authority from politicians to a 14-member citizens’ commission. This system, often held up as a national model, creates districts based on geography, population equality, Voting Rights Act compliance, and shared community interests.
That system faces its first major challenge with Proposition 50.
The current crisis began in June when Trump’s advisers pushed Texas Republicans toward mid-decade redistricting. By July, Texas Governor Greg Abbott had convened a special session to approve maps targeting five Democratic representatives.
Newsom responded swiftly. Democratic consultant Paul Mitchell drafted retaliatory maps in closed-door sessions, and the Legislature placed them before voters by mid-August. The governor framed it as essential self-defense: “They want to rig these elections,” said Newsom about Texas’ push on California.
Meanwhile, Republican-controlled legislatures in Indiana, Florida, Missouri and Kentucky are weighing similar redistricting gambits, potentially turning the 2026 midterms into a contest of creative cartography rather than voter preference.
Who supports Proposition 50 and why?
Democratic leaders and a surprising amount of small donors have poured over $140 million into the Yes campaign. In total, 65,000 donors have contributed to the campaign. $49 million, or about 40% of the total, has come from donors giving less than $100.
Some backers argue that unilateral disarmament against Republican gerrymandering would guarantee GOP House control through Trump’s presidency. With everything from LGBTQ rights to school funding under attack by the Trump administration, proponents argue Prop. 50 could serve as a bulwark for California’s interests.
Big-name individual donors include: George Soros ($10 million); the California Teachers Association ($3 million); venture capitalist Michael Moritz ($2.5 million); Netflix chairman Reed Hastings ($2 million).
Notable Yes on Prop. 50 backers:
- SEIU Local 521 – a 75,000-member union with strong membership in the Fresno area
- The California Teachers Association
- The National Education Association – the largest teachers union in the country
- Miguel Arias, Fresno City Council member
- Trena Turner, member of California’s 2020 Citizens Redistricting Commission
- Sacramento Bee Editorial Board
Who opposes Proposition 50 and why?
The top-heavy opposition includes former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, raising $77 million in total from just 130 donors.
In Fresno, County Farm Bureau CEO Ryan Jacobsen opposes Prop.50, along with Westlands board member William Bourdeau, who believes the proposed districts are too big. “I think we need representatives that understand our area. Water supply is critical to our farming operations,” Bourdeau said.
The campaign’s most fascinating figure is Charles Munger Jr., a Berkeley-trained physicist and Republican activist who helped bankroll California’s original redistricting reforms. The son of Warren Buffett’s late business partner has emerged from political retirement to defend the good-government system he helped create, contributing $33 million to defeat Prop 50.
Notable No on Prop 50 backers:
- Nathan Magsig, Fresno County Supervisor
- Buddy Mendes, Fresno County Supervisor
- Ryan Jacobsen, CEO of Fresno County Farm Bureau
- Clint Olivier, Clovis Unified School District Trustee
- John Zanoni, Fresno County Sheriff
- Arnold Schwarzenegger, former bodybuilder and California governor
- Jeanne Raya, former chair of California’s first independent redistricting commission
- Fresno Bee Editorial Board
Why are good-government groups split?
Perhaps the most dramatic development involves California Common Cause, the good-government group that helped create independent redistricting.
As recently as August, the California wing of Common Cause was preparing to fight California’s gerrymander. California executive director Darius Kemp, according to reporting by Politico, emailed Munger saying, “I am excited to work with you on this fight,” Politico reported.
Then Common Cause’s national leadership caused Kemp to reverse course. The organization announced it would not actively oppose Democratic efforts to counter the Texas gerrymander, as long as those plans matched certain “fairness criteria.”
It’s unclear if Prop. 50 ever met those criteria, according to reporting from Politico.
In late August, staff members in California prepared an analysis that cast doubt on whether Prop. 50’s new congressional maps met the organization’s requirements. The report raised concerns about splitting up minority communities.
Nevertheless, the national organization announced California met the standards.
Multiple California advisory board members of Common Cause have stepped aside as a result.
What your vote means
A “yes” vote means: California will use new congressional maps drawn by Democratic state officials to elect congressional representatives in 2026, 2028 and 2030.
A “no” vote means: The congressional maps won’t change. California will continue to use existing congressional maps drawn in 2021 by the state independent redistricting commission for all congressional elections through 2030.
In either scenario, the state’s independent redistricting commission would regain control over drawing new congressional district maps after 2030.
When you’ll vote
Fresno County Clerk and Registrar of Voters James Kus tells us his office will mail ballots today, Monday, Oct. 6.
The special election is Nov. 4, with just this single statewide measure on the ballot.
Comments are closed.